Modeler Sees High Terror Attack Risk

NU Online News Service, Oct. 19, 4:30 p.m.EDT?A risk modeling firm announced today that it sees anincreased risk of a major terrorist attack involving a bombingoccurring in the United States over the next year.[@@]

The forecast came from Risk Management Solutions, which said itsaw a possible large "macro attack" requiring considerableresources and intended to provoke a political reaction.

RMS said while the overall chances of an attack have increased,the expected severity of an attack has decreased.

According to the firm, evidence suggests that a successfulattack in the United States is now more likely to involve theintelligent deployment of smaller conventional weapons such asvehicle bombs, rather than a chemical, biological or nuclearweapon.

The increased risk, RMS said, is due to the proliferation ofIslamic militants that are motivated and threatening the U.S., andthe preparation time that groups have had to plan attacks thatcould come to maturity in 2005.

In addition, RMS noted that this year has seen a record numberof attacks worldwide, a substantial increase in the number ofdisrupted suspected attack preparations within the U.S., andincreased activity in Islamic militant recruitment.

RMS warned of a considerable increase in international terrorismthreat generated by the Iraq war. Its advisory group cites repeatedexamples of European operatives visiting Iraq, becoming involved inattacks on U.S. forces, and learning guerilla tactics on the frontlines before returning to Europe as now-radicalized and experiencedterrorist operatives, ready to advance Jihadist causes in France,Germany, the UK and elsewhere.

Further, RMS said that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is busily creating anew network of terrorist cells throughout Europe, independent ofthose created by Al Qaeda.

The model firm reported that Al Qaeda itself continues torecruit new members, including a cell recently arrested in the UKthat was comprised of highly educated UK-born Pakistani men who hadnot been through the Afghanistan training camps but were inspiredby the rhetoric and ideology to plan their own attacks?truly'second generation' Islamic militant terrorists.

RMS said the information collected for its overview also playeda significant role in RMS' development of the first-ever GlobalTerrorism Risk Model.

Released in late September, the model is already being used tofacilitate a Montpelier Re/OPIC facility that provides terrorismcoverage to U.S. businesses investing in developing countries andtransition economies.