Evolving Terror Threats Added To RMS Risk Model

NU Online News Service, Sept. 9, 3 :05 p.m.EDT

In its new, updated model, RMS explained, Al Qaeda still remainsthe primary threat, but the group is now seen as undergoing a rapidchange to counter the U.S.-led war against terror. One of the newstrategies initiated by Al Qaeda is to turn more to regional terrorgroups that share its ideology and operational and supportactivities.

The Newark, Calif.-based RMS also noted that Al Qaeda's ongoingadaptive measures will likely result in smaller-scale attacksagainst "more accessible economic and commercial targets."

"Compared with previous estimates released in September 2002,our updated model indicates a smaller probability of a spectacularAl Qaeda attack succeeding in the United States in the comingyear," said Gordon Woo, chief architect of the RMS model.

"Target prioritization in the model also has shifted, reflectingthe process known as target substitution," Mr. Woo added, "asterrorists move their focus away from well-protected government andmilitary sites toward softer commercial sites and infrastructuretargets such as bridges, rail stations and gas stations."

Additionally, the RMS model also allows analysis of coverageprovided under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002. Users cananalyze risk separately for TRIA-certified and non-certifiedevents, and losses can be quantified on a gross basis, or net ofTRIA recoveries.