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U.S. drivers are spending more time on the road in slower and more congested traffic, presenting a new problem for auto insurers, according to a report by Arity.

Risk is shifting off the highways and onto local roads where constant braking, acceleration and stop-and-go traffic signals are growing collision exposure, the data showed, challenging traditional risk models and pricing assumptions heading into 2026.

“We’re seeing real shifts - not just in how people drive, but in when, where, and why they’re hitting the road, Megan Jones, senior actuary and analytics director at Arity told PropertyCasualty360.com.

“As trips get longer and commuting traffic picks back up, delayed measures of risk just aren't cutting it anymore,” she added. “This year’s report gives insurers a clearer picture of what's changing and the potential impact these leading indicators can have on geographic risk. These kinds of insights are key to building smarter, more flexible models that can keep up with how mobility is evolving in 2026 and beyond.”

Key takeaways…

  • Drivers are spending more time on the road. Trip lengths and durations are rising, signaling longer commutes and greater exposure – and with that, higher claim potential.
  • Rush hour congestion is intensifying. Afternoon trips are getting longer and slower than in previous years, prompting a need to reassess exposure models and adjust pricing.
  • Distracted driving is trending down. However, Washington state drivers remain 4% to 7% more distracted than the national average during rush hours. (This could suggest that usage-based insurance (UBI) and driver incentive programs are having a measurable behavioral impact.)
  • Sudden acceleration is up, pointing to worsening stop-and-go traffic and rising congestion – a trend that could drive more low-speed collisions and claims.
  • Hard braking is up despite lower distraction – even as phone use declines, signaling mounting congestion and shifting urban risk patterns, insurers should watch closely.

Meanwhile, return-to-office (RTO) mandates have also reshaped commuter patterns. Nationally, morning rush hours are intensifying while afternoon traffic times have become more flexible, according to Arity.

At the same time, the overall rate of distracted driving has declined, with 2024 and early 2025 trending back toward 2022 through 2023 averages, potentially reflecting improved awareness, better technology, an increase in enforcement and more insurance programs rewarding drivers for safer behavior.

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