My first column for Tech Decisions was in the summer of 1999. Itwasn't called Trends & Technology back then but the gist wasthe same: What is happening in technology and how those changesaffect our lives and the way we do business.

In 1999 Y2K issues were occupying a great deal of our time. Itwas the last good time to be a COBOL programmer, although most ofus were trying to hide that skill and leave all that legacy stuffbehind. The Internet had arrived—Google was founded in 1998.Silicon Valley was booming and the dot-com bust was a year away.The harsh reality though was that the dot-com boom occurred a fewyears before business and technology were fully ready to embracethe Internet and e-Commerce. The bust was inevitable but theInternet promised years of interesting work for developers.

So where are we today vis-à-vis trends and technology? Theemergence of the personal, general purpose device is the definingfactor in the tech world today. Smart phones and tablets havetransformed the way we interact with each other and the way we dobusiness. Teenagers have never known a world without the Internet.They have always had access to a personal computer. For them acomputer is not an enabling technology—it is a part of their lifeexperience.

Three Big Steps

We can identify three game changing paradigms in computing: thedevelopment of the mainframe; the commercialization of the personalcomputer (1981); and ubiquitous connectivity. Everything elsebuilds on those paradigms and continual improvements inengineering.

I recently saw a sketch of a personal device created by NathanMyhrvold (former Microsoft CTO) in 1991. For all practical purposesit was a design for a smart phone—including, email, messaging, GPStechnology, a notepad, and wireless network connectivity. It mayhave taken Steve Jobs to complete that vision when the necessarypieces were in place (very small efficient processors, touch screentechnology, ubiquitous cellular communications, etc.) but the ideawas there 16 years before the execution.

Big Iron

Mainframe technology evolved throughout the 1940's and reachedits pinnacle in the mid '60's with the release of the IBMSystem/360. When I was in college I was fortunate enough to getweekend time on the university's 360. I don't even remember akeypad on the door to the data center. I suspect the only reason wewere permitted as much computer time as we were was because no onereally knew what to do with it so it was better to let a bunch ofundergraduate geeks burn up expensive computer time than let it sitidle. Early mainframes were characterized by large size, largecost, small volatile memory, and total lack of interactivity.

They did do a couple of thing very well. Theywere able to perform complex calculations and analysis on largeamounts of data and they could store large amounts of data.Mainframes were not particularly efficient at these two tasks butthat wasn't the point. They may have been slow and inefficient butthey were far more accurate than armies of green-shaded clerkscranking mechanical calculators and making entries in ledgers andjournals.

Mainframes are still with us and while they have embraced newtechnologies and paradigms (like virtualization) their core systemarchitecture is still based on 1960's thinking. Like COBOL theywill linger around for another decade or so and fade into the pastlike piston-driven commercial airliners.

Personal Computers

The release of the Altair 8800 kit in 1975 marked the birth ofthe personal computer. Bill Gates and Paul Allen got one anddeveloped what they called Altair basic. You probably know the restof the story. The Altair reshaped the way we all think aboutcomputers. For the first time individuals could completely controla computing device limited only by their skill and imagination.

The first commercially successful PCs were the Apple II (1977)and the IBM PC (1981) and those machines are credited withpopularizing PC. The bottom line, though, was they were tooexpensive for most want-to-be programmers. Machines like the TRS-80and the Commodore PET and 64 were relatively affordable and spawnedan entire generation of innovative, youthful programmers who taughtthemselves BASIC and machine instructions and made those machinessing and dance.

That generation of self-taught developers created the computingparadigms that defined the phenomenal growth of computing—objectoriented programming, multi-tier technology, distributed computing,and enterprise databases that run on PC-like devices. When everyonewas writing object oriented code like C++ universities were stillteaching FORTRAN or silly things like RPG. No small wonder that thebest and brightest developers in the 1980's and 90's were, by andlarge, anti-establishment types.

Intelligent Workers?

The personal computer revolution not only put machines in thehands of developers it also put them in front of business users andindividuals. The so-called information worker was born from theneed to justify thousands of managers and workers sitting in frontof these machines day in and day out. I think the jury is still outon the actual productivity gains we have experienced bytransforming office workers into information workers. Most of thebusiness-related tasks the average employee does on their computerare purely clerical.

I suspect a substantial part of an employee's workload is nowconsumed by tasks that never existed before we created theinformation worker and the wealth of self-perpetuating tasks andreports that are fostered by that model. Most business is aboutselling goods and/or services at a price that exceeds our cost.Computers allow us to improve our ability to do that—making itpossible to react immediately to market trends, an obvious businessvalue.

What is not so obviously valuable is all the busy little workerbees churning out endless email, documents, spreadsheets charts,and all the other artifacts that we have come to associate with thebusiness world. Information workers justify their existence throughdefining and fulfilling tasks when the business might be betterserved by creative thinking. A white board is a more compellingmedia for the creative process than a keyboard.

Online all the Time

John Gage, former chief researcher and vice president at SunMicrosystems, is credited as the originator of the phrase "thenetwork is the computer" although others have occasionally takencredit. The realization of that statement—continuously connectedcomputing characterizes the technology trend we are currentlyexperiencing. Apple may be riding the crest of the wave right nowbut the rest of the field is not far behind. The definingcharacteristics of the personal device are few. It must supportcommon standards. It must have the ability to easily connect to theInternet and local networks. It must be intuitively easy touse.

A Computing Swiss Army Knife

The most interesting characteristic of the current best of breeddevices like the iPhone and iPad is that they are used asreplacements for a multitude of other devices. I think I once paid$400 or so for a GPS for my car. That device had two memorabletraits—it kept falling off my windshield and flying across thedashboard during hard cornering—and I would receive a yearly CDwith updated maps from the manufacturer that I could unlock foranother $200. That never happened.

I haven't purchased a music CD in about fouryears. My component stereo system is gone. I haven't purchased apaper book in about two years. I no longer take any dailynewspapers that are made from paper. Using Skype or FaceTime is aseasy as making a phone call. I no longer need cable TV because Ican stream video to my sets. During a recent tornado warning I wasable to stay comfortably in my family room when the sirens soundedbecause I was able to track the progress of the storm in realtime.

Personal devices are truly universal multimedia devices. Theydon't have near the computing capacity of a laptop but most usersfor most use cases don't require all that power. I am typing thison a very expensive machine that is probably wishing I would getback to work so it could do what it was designed to do.

A Re-emerging Player?

Windows 8 could be the tipping point that puts Microsoft back inthe catbird seat. I am very impressed with the UI. They have takena lesson from the Apple and Android devices and incorporated whatthey learned into a touchscreen ready OS for the x64 platform. Allthat's needed is some killer hardware to support the software.

One interesting thing about personal devices is the way in whichgenerations and social groups define how the device is used.Teenagers spend endless hours texting while users in my generationare more likely to email or use instant messaging.

Does that mean that Millenials or Gen-Y-ers are onto somethingthat Boomers can't grasp? No. The pundits always want to say thatone generation or another doesn't get it, but it is justsocio-economic reality. Texting is easier and quicker than usingvoice—and it is silent. Kids don't want anyone—particularly parentsor teachers—listening in on their conversations.

Texting is fairly surreptitious. And it is cheaper. Kids don'talways have expensive data plans that make email possible. It hasthe additional benefit of being cool and kind of secret. Your mommay know what GR8 means but probably doesn't get AYSOS. The realityis that these devices are so unspecialized that everyone finds ause that suits their needs. If you are unable to do so you just maybe from generation Luddite.

Perfect Storm

This convergence of technology, engineering, and connectivityleads us into a really interesting area. Employees now want tobring their personal devices into the workplace and connect tocorporate networks data and email. And because the desire to do sohas been driven from above (senior managers and executives aregenerally the first to bring these devices inside the firewall) ithas generally been accepted.

If the VP of Sales wants to check out the daily sales data onher tablet the security team has little recourse but to make ithappen. That leads to a trickle-down effect and we soon have amultitude of devices in the workplace.

Security aside, there are other issues with the "bring your owndevice" movement. I can control what is installed on a corporatecomputer. I have little control over personal devices.

I was recently in a conference room where a gentleman wastapping away furiously on his Amazon Fire. He could have beentaking very good notes…or he could have been responding to personalemail…or he could have been playing "Where's My Water." Judging byhis lack of response when asked a question I suspect it was thelatter.

Personal devices in the corporate environment are here and can'tbe ignored. We better find a way to embrace them and still maintainproductivity without alienating a generation or two who have neverknown a world with them.  TD

Please address comments, complaints, and suggestions to theauthor at [email protected].