NU Online News Service, March 16, 1:56 p.m. EST

Recent Earthquake Losses Modeler EQECAT has come up with an insured loss estimate of between $12 billion and $25 billion for what is now being called the Tohoku earthquake in Japan, as ACE Ltd. and SCOR have released individual preliminary estimates of their losses due to the magnitude 9.0 March 11 quake.

ACE said net after-tax losses in the first quarter from the earthquake, for both insurance and reinsurance, will be $200 million to $250 million, but the details are still unfolding.

SCOR said its total property and casualty losses from the Japan earthquake will not exceed $257.9 million before tax.

Shortly after the earthquake, AIR Worldwide released an insured loss estimate of $15 billion to $35 billion, which does not include losses from the tsunami.

If ACE’s range of losses is accurate, it basically doubles estimated losses of $210 million that the insurance and reinsurance company said it incurred during the first quarter from the New Zealand earthquake, Australian floods, Cyclone Yasi in Australia and U.S. winter storms. About $155 million of the total is due to the New Zealand quake, ACE said.

In a statement, SCOR said its view is that the “final total loss from these events [earthquake and tsunami] should be lower than this maximum amount,” based on information available to the global reinsurer now. The company covers industrial and commercial risks as a reinsurer of domestic companies and as a reinsurer of the “Kyosai,” a cooperative pool of risk.

QBE said its preliminary estimate of the net claims from the earthquake and following tsunami in Japan is around $125 million.

A briefing from rating agency A.M. Best said cooperative insurers “will be hit severely.” The areas most affected by the earthquake and tsunami are considered non-industrial fishing and farming villages, so the presence of cooperatives is strong.

SCOR also said its investment portfolio has an exposure to Japan of below $55.7 million—primarily in government bonds. However, the company said it is not affected by earthquake and tsunami.

Rating agency Moody’s listed SCOR as one of a group of the major global reinsurance players to be affected by the earthquake. The list also includes Munich Re, Swiss Re, Hannover Re, Berkshire Hathaway and Partner Re.

ACE is included in a list of international companies Moody’s said is most exposed to commercial lines in Japan, but companies on that list—which includes Chartis, Allianz and Zurich—have only a small market share.

A.M. Best said the insured losses of “major players” are not expected to exceed $14 billion. Reserves of these companies stood at about $31 billion as of March 31, 2010, A.M. Best said.

Losses related to residential buildings caused by earthquake or volcanic eruption, or subsequent tsunami, will be covered by the Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance Co. (JER).

EQECAT said $2 billion to $4 billion of insured losses will be ceded to the JER.

The loss estimate from EQECAT included the earthquake, tsunami and fires, as well as losses to automobiles, marine, life and personal insurance lines. The estimate does not include losses associated with nuclear power plants.

Special Reports /

EQECAT: $12-$25B For Japan Quake Losses; ACE, SCOR Release Estimates

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