The Atlantic storm Earl has re-intensified into a Category 4 hurricane and is expected to track closer to the U.S. East Coast than yesterday's estimates, according to the latest forecasts.
In addition to the hurricane warning yesterday for Bogue Inlet, N.C. to the North Carolina/Virginia border, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), as of its 11:00 a.m. EDT update today, has issued a hurricane warning for the coast of Massachusetts from Westport eastward around Cape Cod to Hull, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island.
A hurricane watch is still in effect for north of the North Carolina border to Cape Henlopen, Del.
A tropical storm warning has been issued from New Haven, Conn. to Westport, Mass.; from Cape Fear, N.C. to west of Bogue Inlet, N.C.; from north of the Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook, N.J.; and for the eastern portion of Long Island, N.Y., from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor.
As of the NHC update, Earl was located about 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C. The storm is moving north at around 18 miles per hour, with an expected turn to the north-northeast tomorrow.
The center of the storm will pass near the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight, according to the NHC. As no weakening is expected today, the storm could pass near the North Carolina coast as a Category 4 hurricane.
Catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide said the current forecast is for the storm to pass about 60 miles off of Cape Hatteras, about 20 miles closer than yesterday's forecast.
AIR said that, further north, by sometime Saturday, Earl should pass about 35 miles off of Cape Cod and 20 miles east of Nantucket. By that time, though, AIR said the forecast calls for Earl to weaken to Category 1 or Category 2 strength.
AIR said the current track "keeps onshore properties along the entire coast to the left-hand--and therefore weaker--side of the storm." Earl's "considerable forward speed" should also limit properties' exposure to the storm, AIR said.
As for the impact on North Carolina, AIR said, "North Carolina has a solid history of building code adoption and enforcement. Wind design requirements in coastal regions, including Cape Hatteras' Dare County, are among the most stringent in the country. The extent of any damage caused by Earl will therefore be quite sensitive to just how close the storm tracks to the coast."
But AIR said North Carolina is also "very vulnerable" to storm surge. The NHC is calling for "dangerous storm surge" that will raise water levels by as much as three-to-five feet within the hurricane warning areas.
According to catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions, based on today's forecast, nearly $4 billion of exposure lies within the NHC "cone of uncertainty" over North Carolina.
Both AIR and Guy Carpenter's Instrat unit are estimating insured losses of between $50 million and $150 million from Hurricane Earl's earlier brush with islands in the Caribbean.
According to AIR, "The estimate includes wind damage to insured onshore properties in the Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, St. Martin and Puerto Rico. Nearly half of the total is attributed to St. Maarten where high winds downed trees and power lines, and peeled off roofs and signage."
