"Super" El Niño predictions are growing in certainty, and it could mean a very different Pacific hurricane season this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there's a 60% chance of an El Niño developing between May and July and a 25% chance of a Super El Niño by the end of the year. Other models say a Super El Niño is a near certainty.
El Niños warm the water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and can disrupt weather patterns for months. A Super El Niño raises water temperatures a few degrees higher, potentially intensifying those weather changes.
There have been 27 El Niños since 1950, happening about every three to four years, but there have only been five Super El Niños in that same period. The last Super El Niño was in 2015-2016.
While a Super El Niño could help reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic, it could create more hurricanes in the Pacific. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts this Friday.
"This could be an unusually active and potentially impactful year in the Pacific basin, unlike the Atlantic basin, where we are forecasting fewer storms than the historical average," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement.
An El Niño will raise risk for Hawaii, Southern California and parts of Mexico. The Eastern and Central Pacific basin are likely to see an above average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes this year, according to AccuWeather.
In the Eastern Pacific, AccuWeather is forecasting 17-22 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-8 major hurricanes, with 6-9 direct impacts to Mexico and Central America. In the Central Pacific, they're forecasting 4-7 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and 1-2 direct impacts to Hawaii.
"The Pacific is unusually warm, and that raises the stakes this season," DaSilva said. "That extra energy stored in the ocean can help storms strengthen faster, last longer and in some cases move farther north toward places like Baja California and far Southern California."
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