Tornado over landscape.
Forecasters expect fewer tornadoes this spring but a higher risk of widespread, severe storms, according to a new report from AccuWeather.
La Nina is expected to exit, which will likely reduce how often tornado-producing conditions are created in the atmosphere. But it will boost the chances of repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms, producing damaging high winds and flooding downpours.
"There may be fewer tornadoes reported compared to last year, but that does not mean this will be a quiet severe weather season," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus in a statement. "There is an increased likelihood of severe thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Flash flooding is a big concern this year."
AccuWeather forecasters are predicting 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes across the United States this year. The historical average for tornadoes in the U.S. is 1,225.
Last spring saw exceptionally high tornado activity, with 1,544 preliminary tornado reports. Two-thirds of 2025's tornado activity occurred between March and May.
Tornadoes and severe weather are expected to set up in the eastern Plains, the mid-Mississippi Valley and the western Ohio Valley starting in March and April. In the north and east, cooler weather will likely limit severe storms in early spring, with severe thunderstorms expected to arrive in May or early summer.
In 2026, forecaster predict high hail risk from Texas to Alabama as well as around Iowa, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas.
"Tornado reports may trend lower than last year, but it only takes one storm striking a densely populated or vulnerable community to make this a devastating season," Duffus said.
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