NCCI expects the impact of rate/loss level changes on premiums to decrease by an average of 6% in 2025. (Credit: Lightfield Studios/Adobe Stock)
Workers’ compensation remains the most profitable property and casualty insurance line in the U.S., and the latest report from NCCI predicts the line will continue to see strong financial performance through the end of 2025 and beyond.
Despite the product’s strong performance, net written premiums were down slightly last year. In 2024, the total workers' compensation net written premium by private carriers nationwide was $41.6 billion, representing a 3.2% decrease from 2023.
However, the net combined ratio in 2024 was 86.1%, which represents a 13.9% underwriting gain. This marked the eighth consecutive year of the combined ratio finishing under 90% and the eleventh consecutive year of underwriting gains. NCCI attributes this to declining claim frequency and disciplined underwriting.
The report notes a 1.9% year-over-year decline in direct written premium in the first half of 2025. However, it projects the net combined ratio will settle between 85 and 93 for year-end 2025 — making it the workers’ comp industry’s twelfth consecutive profitable year.
NCCI expects the impact of rate/loss level changes on premiums to decrease by an average of 6% in 2025. It attributes this decrease to factors including the wage-sensitive exposure base of workers’ compensation, declines in lost-time claim frequency and moderate changes in claim severity.
Overall, NCCI predicts 2025 will end with net written premiums similar to the $41.6 billion recorded in 2024.
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