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Self-insured employers with average or poor claims experience may see stop-loss renewal quotes for 2026 well over 10%.
Analysts at Aegis Risk, a stop-loss consulting firm, put that warning in a new report on an employer survey sponsored by the International Society of Certified Employee Benefit Specialists.
The analysts assumed in illustrations for 2026 forecasts that a typical employer's stop-loss premiums will rise 11.5% next year.
But "actual policyholder results will vary, with increases approaching 20% or more not uncommon if no change [is made] in the deductible," the Aegis analysts wrote.
Stop-loss insurance protects employers with self-insured plans against catastrophic claims.
Stop-loss issuers have been talking for more than a year about seeing a broad, powerful surge in claims.
Some of the other obstacles to holding down stop-loss premiums now include big cancer treatment claims, high bills for all kinds of inpatient hospital care, and the high cost of some of the new gene therapies now reaching the market, Aegis analysts said.
At the 1,268 plan sponsors that responded to the Aegis-ISCEBS survey, the percentage citing the cost of treating cancer as a top cost concern increased to 92% this year, from 83% in 2024.
The Aegis analysts reported that accepting a higher deductible can still make a big difference in premiums.
The average monthly stop-loss premium is $229.40 this year for a contract with a $100,000 individual deductible but just $17.69 for a contract with a $1 million deductible.
Average annual renewal increases have been higher for the higher-deductible stop-loss contracts.
The average 2025 increase ranged from 8.8% for a policy with a $100,000 individual deductible up to 10.4% for a policy with a $750,000 individual deductible, according to the Aegis analysts.
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