Lingering warm air will increase wildfire risk, particularly in the West. (Credit: Quality Stock Arts/Adobe Stock)
Meteorological fall starts Sept. 1 — but, across most of the country, it won’t feel like it.
High temperatures will hold firm in the eastern U.S. as well as the Southeast and the Southwest well into the second half of fall, according to a new forecast from AccuWeather.
“Areas in the middle of the country, including Kansas to Wisconsin, will experience very pleasant and calm stretches of fall weather that will be perfect for fairs, festivals and outdoor events,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert, in a statement. “Other areas across the eastern and western U.S. will face some stubborn summerlike heat and humidity sticking around this autumn.”
That lingering heat will boost weather risk in many areas. AccuWeather experts say California, Texas, Oregon and Idaho will experience the warmest weather, sparking concern about wildfires. They’re forecasting an elevated wildfire threat across the West, particularly in California, the Rockies and the Northwest.
“People in fire-prone areas need to have their go bags ready,” Pastelok said. “Please make sure the defensible space around your home is cleared and take evacuation orders seriously.”
The Great Lakes region has been dry this year and may also face fire concerns during windy periods. Parts of the Northeast and the Carolinas could also see a heightened risk of fires this fall, and fallen trees from Hurricane Helene could help fuel blazes.
In the Midwest, the collision of lingering warm air and encroaching cold air could set off severe storms from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley, particularly in October and November.
“There have been a lot of destructive tornadoes across the nation this year,” Pastelok said. “Plenty of warm and moist air is forecast to continue surging from the Gulf into the center of the country this autumn. When it clashes with cooler air from Canada plunging in from the north, we will likely see rounds of severe storms and possibly more tornadoes in the center of the country, especially in October. The risk of severe weather is predicted to shift east into the Tennessee Valley and the interior Southeast during the month of November.”
More than 1,300 preliminary tornado reports have been filed across the country so far this year. AccuWeather estimates the country will see somewhere between 1,525 and 1,700 tornadoes before the year is through.
In the South, hurricane season is just getting started. AccuWeather is predicting an active hurricane season, with 13 to 18 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes. They’re forecasting three to five major hurricanes, with three to six direct impacts to the U.S.
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