Heading into 2024, risk managers were less worried about the threat of another global pandemic and were optimistic about the direction of the economy, according to the 18th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks.
The survey found that, while many risks are on the rise, two previous top-five risks — financial volatility and pandemics/infectious diseases — have started to slip out of the rankings.
Survey respondents also showed strong optimism for this year’s global economic outlook — the strongest seen since 2017. Among respondents, 7% believe the outlook is strong, 33% believe it’s good and only 9% believe it’s poor.
The survey says recency bias and timing play a role in the results. As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes from memory, so do pandemic fears — even if the threat remains. The survey was also taken at the end of 2024, just after the U.S. election. Results pre-date any concerns around tariff-related trade wars and the avian flu outbreak.
Other risk factors have also seen a decline in priority. Weapons of mass destruction and terrorism are no longer as concerning to risk managers. While weather and natural disasters remain concerning, specific threats — including earthquakes and tropical storms — aren’t worrying risk managers as much. The same is true for AI: while risk managers still have AI-related concerns, they’re less likely to rank AI hallucinations and late adoption of AI as threats.
One risk that’s rising, however, is failed and failing states. While still relatively low on the list, the topic has seen a surge of concern in the last year.
The slideshow above highlights risk managers’ top five emerging risks according to the survey.
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