People fight the wind as they walk in a parking lot before Hurricane Nicole makes landfall in Jensen Beach, Florida on November 9, 2022. (Credit: Eva Marie Uzcategui/AFP/Getty Images)
Hurricane Nicole made landfall along Florida's east coast early on the morning of Nov. 10, 2022, as a Category 1 storm after pummeling the Bahamas the day prior, according to the National Hurricane Center. Shortly after making landfall in Florida, Nicole began to lose strength and was downgraded to a tropical storm.
Although it has been downgraded, Nicole remains a very large tropical storm with winds extending outward up to 450 miles, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression tonight or early on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022, as it moves over Georgia. It is then expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the mid-Atlantic by Friday night.
Ahead of making landfall, Nicole's destructive force was already being felt in Florida. The Weather Channel was reporting significant beach erosion and some coastal flooding in Jacksonville and other cities as early as 3:15 pm (EST) on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022.
Storm surges are expected to be seen from Florida up to Surf City, North Carolina, according to the hurricane center.
Jeff Waters, meteorologist and senior product manager, global climate, Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS), says rainfall totals for the mid-Atlantic and northeast are projected to be significant as Nicole makes its way up the coast through Friday, Nov. 11 and into the weekend.
Late-season storms
While a November hurricane isn't unheard of — Waters says they tend to occur every few years — it is rare to see hurricanes make landfall in the U.S. this late into the season.
Waters explains that late-season landfall is rare for three primary reasons: First, November tends to see an uptick in wind shear, which suppresses the likelihood of tropical storms or hurricanes developing. Secondly, more cold fronts come through and there is a general southern shift in the jet stream, both of which can prevent tropical cyclones from forming. The third factor is the general cooling of warm waters, which are where tropical storms get most of their energy.
"Right now, we are still seeing warm ocean temperatures in the western Atlantic, particularly in the area Nicole formed," Waters tells PropertyCasualty360.com.
A hurricane making landfall in the U.S. in November is a rare event, but Nicole is not alone in the distinction. The Yankee Hurricane of 1935 and the Expedition Hurricane of 1861 each made landfall in early November. Nicole is also not the latest into November that a hurricane has made U.S. landfall, RMS reports, as Hurricane Kate hit Mexico Beach, Florida, as a Category 2 hurricane on November 21, 1985.
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