The combined estimated changes for individual premium-related components (employment, wages and rate/loss costs) suggest an overall drop of 7% in jurisdictions NCCI has insights from.
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Private carriers nationwide saw a decrease of 8.1% in direct written workers' comp premiums during 2020 when compared with the year prior, according to National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) estimates, which also revealed a rise in opioid prescriptions during Q2 2020.
Noting the last time net written premiums were at this level was in 2014, Vicky Mayen, FCAS, MAAA, director & actuary at NCCI, said in a webinar: "Workers compensation calendar year losses declined at about the same rate as premiums. That means our preliminary estimate for the private carrier workers' comp combined ratio countrywide for calendar year 2020 is 86, just one point higher than 2019."
Examining data from the 38 jurisdictions where NCCI gives estimating services, the combined estimated changes for individual premium-related components (employment, wages and rate/loss costs) suggest an overall drop of 7% in jurisdictions NCCI has insights in.
Opioid use rises
A review of the data also showed a 10% increase in opioid utilization in workers' compensation during the second quarter of 2020, bucking quarter-on-quarter declines previously seen.
Raji Chadarevian, director of medical regulation & informatics, noted this is a troubling trend worth watching.
Although the pandemic disrupted medical services distribution, Chadarevian said findings for Q2 2020 show only minimum delays in treatment, if any. He does know the current dataset only accounts for treatments that took place, and subsequent data will bring sharper relief to the overall extent and nature of delays.
"Surgery experience was also surprising to us," Chadarevian said during the review. "Active workers compensation claims with surgery remains steady at roughly 12%. We are not seeing a delay in medical procedures during the pandemic."
However, there was a decrease in physician service intensity, which could indicate changes in the types of surgeries performed.
Looking into 2021, as more layoffs become permanent it is expected that job recovery will be slower than it was in the year prior, according to Mayen.
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