Florida's West Coast in Irma's crosshairs as track shifts

Updated 6:06 p.m. EST

(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Irma shifted track and took aim at southwestern Florida, raising the risk of severe damage in Tampa and other cities facing the Gulf of Mexico, in what could end up being the most expensive storm in U.S. history.

With top winds of 125 miles (201 kilometers) an hour, the deadly storm is expected to strike the Florida Keys Sunday morning then follow the state’s Gulf Coast north, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory around 5 p.m. New York time. At Category 3, Irma is expected to regain strength later Saturday.

Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay

“A track near or just to the west is almost, if not, a worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay,” said Rob Miller, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “It shoves all the water into Tampa Bay and then shoves it right into downtown Tampa.”

The storm has left at least 22 people dead and thousands homeless across the Caribbean, and threatens to rack up as much as $200 billion in damages. Irma’s anticipated northern turn still hasn’t occurred, raising the threat to Florida’s west coast while potentially sparing Miami a direct hit.

Now about 145 miles southeast of Key West, Irma could come ashore between Tampa and Fort Myers late Sunday or early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds for entire sourthern portion of Fla.

 
“A trajectory west of previous forecasts will still mean hurricane-force winds for the entire southern portion of Florida from coast to coast,” said Shunondo Basu, meteorologist and natgas analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Storm damage may worsen if Irma drifts along Florida’s west coast without coming ashore and weakening, said David Streit, a meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. On its current path, Irma may wipe out as much as 20% the citrus crop in the world’s second-largest orange juice producer.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management estimates that 6.3 million residents are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders, Alberto Moscoso, the office’s Communications Director, said by phone. The population of the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area is about 3 million.

Irma is one of two tropical systems churning in the region. Jose, the third major one of the 2017 season, remained a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds as strong as 145 miles per hour.

Katia broke apart after making landfall in Mexico, the NHC said. The country was struck by a powerful earthquake on Friday, shaking buildings in the capital and triggering a tsunami warning.

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Damage from Irma could easily top $120 billion in Florida, with other economic losses pushing the price tag as high as $200 billion, said Chuck Watson, a Savannah, Georgia-based disaster modeler with Enki Research. A worst-case strike near Tampa could cause as much as $250 billion in damage.

“That is an outside possibility and requires the storm to hit the right place, at the right time, at the right angle,” Watson said. “But it’s a 1 in 20 chance right now.”

CoreLogic loss estimates

Preliminary estimates show losses across the Caribbean nearing $10 billion. CoreLogic said. About 8.5 million properties in Florida may be damaged by Irma’s winds and another 3.5 million are vulnerable to a storm surge.

Total losses from Katrina reached $160 billion in 2017 dollars after it slammed into New Orleans in 2005.

“Wind damage is totally going to throw a wrench into the insurance industry,” Watson said. “You are talking about companies failing.”

20.6 million people in Florida may lose power

About 9 million of Florida’s 20.6 million people may lose power, according to the state’s largest utility Florida Power & Light Co. Irma may also curb natural gas demand in one of the largest U.S. markets and threaten $1.2 billion worth of crops.

Related: Power outage: How homeowners can tackle power loss this hurricane season

Officials were taking steps to ensure adequate supplies of gasoline after residents filled up cars, boats and back-up generators ahead of the storm.

Irma was 175 miles south east of Key West, moving west at about 9 mph, the hurricane center said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles, according to the NHC.

The hurricane comes just two weeks after Harvey smashed ashore in Texas, knocking offline almost a quarter of U.S. oil refining capacity and causing widespread power outages and flooding.

In other storm news

• Comcast Corp.’s Universal Parks and Resorts division closed three theme parks in Orlando, and Walt Disney World Resort will shut early Saturday. U.S.
• Coast Guard Closes Tampa, St. Petersburg, Manatee Ports.
• Insured damage to the French Caribbean islands of Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy will reach about 1.2 billion euros ($1.4 billion), France’s state-owned reinsurer CCR said in a statement Saturday.

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