Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses resulting from Hurricane Harvey's winds and storm surge in Texas will range from $1.2 billion to $2.3 billion.
AIR's current estimates include wind and storm-surge damage within the extent of Harvey's tropical storm-force and hurricane-force wind field. Included in the estimates are onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and their contents, automobiles, and additional living expenses for residential properties and business interruption for commercial properties.
These estimates do not include business interruption losses resulting from the closure of oil refineries in the region or the impact of the ongoing rain and flooding following Harvey's arrival.
Damage throughout Lone Star State
Feeder bands continued to bring abundant amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over land, with the Houston area being the primary target. As of late Saturday night, three-hour rainfall totals of 12 to 15 inches were reported in and around Galveston and Harris counties and the rain bands persisted over the next 12 to 18 hours, dumping an additional 10 to 20 inches.
In Corpus Christi, downed trees, debris, and power lines blocked roadways, signs were blown down, and some roofs were at least partially torn off. Incidents of direct structural damage, however, were limited.
In Rockport, just four miles west of the landfall location, the damage was severe; masonry walls collapsed, wood frame homes were shattered, roofs and metal siding were peeled off, mobile homes were overturned, and trees were uprooted.
"As devastating as the wind damage was in Rockport and surrounding towns, flooding from Harvey's torrential rains has had the greatest impact," said Dr. Eric Uhlhorn, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. "With a lack of large-scale atmospheric steering, Harvey's motion was stalled resulting in extremely heavy and continuous tropical rainfall in a concentrated area."
Looking forward
Harvey weakened to a Category 1 by 5 a.m. CDT Saturday morning and was downgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph at 1 p.m. later that day.
Currently, Harvey is re-emerging into the Gulf where it is expected to continue moving southeastward at just 3 mph. Later today or overnight, the storm is forecast to turn northeastward, potentially making a second landfall near Houston later this week. While some strengthening is possible, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center currently do not expect Harvey to achieve hurricane status as it lacks an organized core and is encountering strong southwesterly wind shear. An additional 10–20 inches of rain are expected between now and Friday, September 1.
According to the Insurance Council of Texas, only about 20% of homeowners have flood insurance, almost all of which is through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) run by FEMA. Harvey may well push the NFIP, which is already $25 billion in debt, up against its borrowing limit of $30 billion and prompt lawmakers to reform the program, which is due to be reauthorized at the end of September.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.