Samantha Masunaga of the Los Angeles Times, cites a study by PwC that says by 2030, 38% of American jobs will be held by robots. That's more than for jobs in Britain, Germany, or Japan. "The report says the financial and insurance sector has a much higher possibility of automation in the U.S. than in Britain," where the outlook tends to be international, and U.S. counterparts "do not need to have the same educational levels," hence "jobs that require less education are at higher potential risk of automation." When self-driving vehicles have the ability to report accidents directly, who needs a human for "claim intake"?
Even by 2020, a growing number of insurance-related jobs may be disappearing in the U.S. Those best placed for the future will be individuals with excellent language skills. While science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) will remain important subjects for graduate and post-graduate employment (designing those robots), "soft social skills" such as language, psychology and sociology will have increasing value. So will the ability to write logically.
One way of analyzing employees, suggests Marc S. Bashoor, a fire chief in Prince George's County, Maryland, is the 10/80/10 method. In his January 2107, Firehouse Magazine article, he suggests that "80% of the people are working for the right reasons, with the right moral and mental focus, prepared to do the business of the people [or employer]…. These folks make sure the organization stays on track. [This] is where … followers, managers and leaders fit."
As to the 20% on either side, Bashoor finds that these "are constantly, directly or indirectly consciously or subconsciously, trying to derail the organization." He refers to some of the worst as "slugs," adding that "we're talking about differences in ideology and general approach to the job – and there [are] people on either side of any issue whose actions disrupt the organization's progress." Bashoor suggests that it is the 80% in the middle who accomplish the organization's objectives. Of that group, he says that perhaps 10% are leaders, "setting the vision which the 80% are working toward, while a remaining 5% are slugs." It is "slugs" who are most likely to be replaced quickly by robotic systems.
But what is a "slug"? J. D. Vance in his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, describes one, a young man he encountered while working at a tile warehouse. "Bob was 19 with a pregnant girlfriend [who was also offered a job]. Both were terrible workers. The girlfriend missed about every third day…. Bob missed work about once a week, and was chronically late.… He often took three or four daily bathroom breaks, each of half an hour."
In the future, some tasks will be able to be handled by computers and robots to reduce costs and maximize resources. (Photo: Shutterstock)
Preparing to be replaced by a robot
What is true for an organization such as the fire service is true for any organization, including a claims department. But Bashoor suggests that, whatever one's role may be, it is not about that individual – rather, it is about getting the job done in the best and most efficient way. When computerized robots can do that as well as a human, then there is little need to train and supervise people who add little to the organization's purposes. How many "receptionists" have computerized telephone answering systems replaced?
"There's a time and a place to get involved; then there's a time and place to trust that your people understand why and that they will 'get it done.' Micromanaging every facet of what your folks do is the surest way to overwhelm yourself and unintentionally derail the organization," he warns. "To succeed as a leader, you have to be part magician, part boss, part friend, and part follower. Listen, give everyone the opportunity to contribute and succeed. Dealing with change and personnel issues is difficult work."
Change in the businessworld
One constant for everyone is "change." Some change is helpful and gives advantages – the onset of the PC 40 years ago, for example – and some of it is simply some new business school's academic gibberish that will ultimately help no one. Change is not always positive; changes in any claims-related entity (new owners, acquisitions, mergers, sell-offs, outsourcing or downsizing) mean that the ones involved in the entity must adapt to the new. That is where the human may be superior to the robot.
Ken Brownlee, CPCU, is a former adjuster and risk manager based in Atlanta, Ga. He now authors and edits claims-adjusting textbooks. Opinions expressed are the author's.
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