Willis: Ebola virus now a threat to global peace and security

Editor's note: This post originally appeared on the WillisWire blog.

On Thursday 18th September, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa officially mutated, in the eyes of the United Nations and the President of the United States, from being a medical emergency to a threat to global security. In the words of the World Health Organisation's Director, Dr Margaret Chan: “This is not just an outbreak. This is not just a public health crisis. This is a social crisis, a humanitarian crisis, an economic crisis, and a threat to national security well beyond the outbreak zones''.

A Threat to International Order

The UN Security Council called the Ebola outbreak “a threat to international peace and security” as the Secretary General, Ban-ki Moon called for a billion dollars in aid to contain and tackle the virus.

So why should the spread of this deadly virus (with cases doubling every three weeks) represent a threat to the international order? At ground level in these often impoverished and fragile states the contagion tramples rough-shod through governance, provision of public services, public security and predominantly rural economies. In some areas, hunger stalks the virus. For example, the fields of Lofa County, once Liberia's breadbasket, now lie fallow. The production of vital cash crops and exports such as palm oil, cocoa and rubber is likely to fall off, as will vital inward trade. Mineral extraction is an important mainstay of the many of the affected countries and those in the region; with expatriates leaving and local workers exposed to the disease the impact on this sector in the region could be debilitating.

In Urban areas, already rickety infrastructure becomes harder to maintain, while industries are suffocated by restrictions on movement of people and the goods so critical to regional trade. It is possible that the economic repercussions of the virus on such fragile economies may, in themselves, cause comparable levels of death. Quarantine measures have already sparked violence between police and protesters. Health workers report difficulties in gaining the trust of locals when searching for bodies or tracing the recent contacts of the dead. Civil disorder, should it occur, may become uncontainable due to weakened government and police structures.

Devastating Consequences

Taken together, these factors, unchecked, could create the conditions for state collapse and economic breakdown at both state and regional level with profound regional security ramifications. Even if the disease were not to spread beyond African shores, the United States, the World Bank and the UN envisage the damage to W. Africa, its people, trade and prosperity as demanding “a level of international action unprecedented for a health emergency”. Unspoken but surely in the minds of global leaders is that an already tardy response, if ineffective, will further challenge the underlying concept of a responsive and humanitarian international system.

The UN resolution calls for travel bans imposed by some states to be lifted, pointing out that affected countries need to have access to aid instead of being isolated. Organisations travelling to or working in the region should take expert advice and refer to the World Health Organization's website. In case of an assessed requirement to move within or away from the region, contingency plans should be reviewed and rehearsed.

Tim Holt is head of Inform at Alert: 24, a new crisis and risk management consultancy from Special Contingency Risks. He has spent much of his career in regions of risk with the British Army, the Red Cross and on cease-fire negotiations. He has worked globally for corporations, the British government, NGOs and the UN as a risk management adviser and responder, encouraging intelligence-driven risk management.