Update: Robert Costa, a Washington Post reporter, said on Twitter today that Hensarling has decided not to run, leaving Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Rules Committee, as the only likely opponent against McCarthy for the House majority leader post.
Today's resignation of Eric Cantor as House majority leader following his stunning primary defeat would lead a pundit with a background as a meteorologist to say the outlook for prompt passage of legislation sought by the property and casualty insurance industry is cloudy at best.
That's because Cantor's defeat will strengthen the ability of conservatives demanding a lesser role for the federal government to push through legislation weakening the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, whose reauthorization is by far the No. 1 priority for the P&C industry. The current program sunsets Dec. 31.
It would also impact passage of legislation that would clarify that the Federal Reserve can use insurance metrics in overseeing insurance companies.
For example, in comments last week, Rep. Peter T. King, R-N.Y., stated his strategy as a House Financial Services Committee member will be to vote for a TRIA bill he does not necessarily like just to get it out of that committee and to the House floor, at which point the true version of the bill would begin to take shape. He expressed optimism that final legislation that will be voted on after the House and Senate reconcile their bills will be much closer to the Senate version, with a lower trigger than the FSC is contemplating and at least a five-year term.
However, given that Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, current chairman of the House FSC and a prime supporter of scaling back TRIA, is going to be a candidate to succeed Cantor, that strategy now faces long odds.
"There are many ways to advance the causes of freedom and free enterprise, and I am prayerfully considering the best way I can serve in those efforts," Hensarling said in confirming last week that he wants to supplant Cantor.
King touched on this in comments today in The New York Times.
King said Cantor's defeat will put an immigration overhaul even further out of reach, something that would hurt Republicans in the next presidential election when they will need to cut into the Democrats' lead with immigrant and Latino voters.
"The results tonight will move the party further to the right, which will marginalize us further as a national party," King said.
It is believed that Cantor is being pushed to leave quickly in order to make it easier for the preferred successor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to become majority leader. He is now the No. 3 Republican, and played a key role in working with Cantor to encourage and provide funds for Tea Party advocates to run in the 2010 election, which resulted in a wave election that turned House control back over to the Republicans.
Another candidate for Cantor's job is Rep. Pete Sessions, a conservative from Texas.
If Hensarling gets a leadership post, he is likely to be succeeded as chairman of the House FSC by Rep. Randy Neugebauer, another Texan, current chairman of the of the Financial Services panel's Housing and Insurance Subcommittee, and a prime architect of an initial draft version of TRIA legislation that scaled the program back considerably.
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