Wilkens Weather Technologies is predicting a below-average tropical storm season for the North Atlantic, echoing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University's similar predictions.
In its 2014 Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic Basin and Western Pacific, Wilkens predicts there will be 10 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) in 2014. The 30-year average for Atlantic storms is 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.
NOAA predicts 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. Colorado State University is calling for 10 named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Colorado State recently upped its earlier prediction of nine named storms to 10 because "El Nino isn't coming on as strong as we thought," says Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the outlook.
Wilkens is also predicting an above-average season for the Western Pacific Ocean, with 30 tropical systems (compared to the 45-year median of 27) and 19 typhoons (compared to 17). 2013 was also an above-average year for the Western Pacific with 31 tropical systems and 13 typhoons.
According to Wilkens, long-range climate models predict that there is an increasing likelihood that the equatorial Pacific Ocean will transition to an El Nino phase through the summer, producing more storms. Read the report HERE.
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