Meteor Explodes Over Russia, Shattering Windows and Injuring Hundreds

But what if the meteor was larger, or worse yet, had slammed into a large urban area? 

In today's densely populated world, a hair's width of possibility stands between a meteor plunging harmlessly into the ocean or devastating a hub of human civilization. 

"There could have been up to 20 times as many injuries had this occurred in New York rather than in Russia," says Robert Muir-Wood, chief risk officer of Risk Management Solutions (RMS). "By my current projections, up to 25 percent of windows locally could be shattered [by the impact]. Scaled up to the greater New York City area, we could see hundreds of millions of dollars in damage." 

Although the morning's event was easier for authorities to handle than a concentrated threat like a terrorist attack, the impact, says Wood, "reminds us that there are things out there that models can't foresee."  

This morning's event is reminiscent of the enormous airburst that occurred over the Tunguska River in Central Siberia in 1908, releasing 1,000 times more energy than was released by the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima. There were no human casualties in the desolate Tunguska, but a 25-mile ring of flattened trees eerily suggested what could have occurred. 

According to RMS, the frequency of a Tunguska-type event is a 1,000-year return occurrence. However, if the footprint of the next impact centered over Manhattan, the mean damage ratio, fatality rate, and injury rate would be 70 percent, 50 percent and 40 percent respectively but taper near the outer boroughs.  

The government response on Friday was huge. Seven airplanes were deployed to search for places where fragments might have fallen, and more than 20,000 people were dispatched to comb the area on foot, according to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. There were also 28 sites designated to monitor radiation. No unusual readings had been detected, the ministry reported. 

Meanwhile, a small asteroid will pass within 17,200 miles of Earth, close enough to weave inside the geostationary orbit belt of satellites, responsible for our communications, navigations and defense systems, but still well away from the International Space Station and other satellites, reports say. NASA says there is no chance of the asteroid impacting the planet.

There are three levels of risk associated with asteroids, and it depends mostly upon their size. 

Small objects 33 feet in diameter or smaller enter our atmosphere frequently, reports RMS. We experience these "shooting stars" up to several times per year. They generally disintegrate during their plunge to the ground, but if impact does occur, the remaining energy left may produce a crater several feet wide. 

Impacts with medium-sized objects up to 330 feet in diameter are rarely experienced, the Tonguska crater being an exception. Should this occur over a densely-populated region, it could lead to hundreds of thousands of casualties and hundreds of billions of dollars lost, far beyond what the insurance industry could handle. But the most likely case is that it would occur outside of a major city and cause effects similar to that of a major earthquake.  

In the worst-case scenario, a massive object 3,300 feet in diameter would devastate our social, economic and political structures upon impact. Some work has been done to investigate mitigation and policy frameworks linked to major impacts. But if indeed the object is similar to the one that led to the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, there is little that the insurance market, or anyone, could do.