Normal Hurricane Season Predicted, but U.S. ‘Overdue’ for Landfall

NU Online News Service, May 25, 12:54 p.m. EDT

Two prognosticators of the 2012 Atlantic-hurricane season are standing pat on their previously-released outlooks but the U.S. is “overdue” for a landfall.

Forecasters Weather Services International (WSI) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) each call for an Atlantic hurricane season close to the long-term average of 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger.

TSR, which is co-sponsored by Aon Benfield, rounds off its forecast to predict 13 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

WSI, a member of The Weather Channel Cos., forecasts 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

The Atlantic-hurricane season begins June 1 but 2012 has already seen its first named storm—Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19 off the coast of South Carolina.

Despite the early start to the season, forecasters say storm activity in the Atlantic this year will be below the near-term average of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes, due to atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures that are not conducive to storm formations.

WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford says the firm’s model calls for a slightly below-normal probability of landfall on the East Coast but a slightly above-normal probability of landfall in the Gulf.  

It only takes one storm to cause a major event and Mark Saunders, a professor at TSR, says “uncertainties [in forecasts] remain and we are overdue for U.S. land-falling hurricane strikes.”

The hurricane season of 1992 was one of low activity, with seven named storms, but it produced Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm that pummeled Florida as well as Louisiana.

Andrew caused nearly $23 billion (in 2011 dollars) in insured losses, according to the Insurance Information Institute. Andrew stood as the costliest U.S. hurricane ever until Katrina in 2005 caused a $46.6 billion in insured losses.

Hurricane Irene in 2011 was the first to make landfall in the U.S. in the last three years and no major hurricane has hit land since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, says TSR.

“Nature has a habit of correcting herself,” says Saunders.

TSR forecasts four tropical storm strikes on the U.S. this year, including two hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team of William Gray and Phil Klotzbach expect to issue an update to their widely-cited forecast on June 1.

In April the duo called for 10 tropical storms in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, with four strengthening into hurricanes.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings released an analysis stating that sufficient capacity remains available in the insurance and reinsurance markets to meet the demand for coverage prior to the approaching U.S. hurricane season. Capacity remains high, Fitch says, despite reported declines in surplus.