The August 23 earthquake centered in Virginia was a wake-up call for many people. As it unexpectedly rattled the areas from Atlanta, Ga. up through Canada, attention was drawn to the possibility of more seismic activity throughout the eastern U.S.
Catastrophe risk-modeler EQECAT predicts insured losses from the 5.8-magnitude quake in the sparsely-populated area at less than $100 million, but that number would be much higher if an earthquake were to strike nearby in New York City. EQECAT's USQuake model predicts that there is actually a higher seismic hazard for the New York City metro area, where a 5.5-magnitude earthquake would potentially cause $10 to $20 billion in damages.
Although an earthquake of that magnitude in New York City is only a 500-year event, these catastrophes are incredibly unpredictable. For example, the seismic zone in Virginia that was rattled in August had never experienced an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 4.8.
If a quake occurred in NYC, damage would most likely occur in areas with soft or liquefiable soil and particularly older, low-rise buildings would be affected. However, because of this, concerns of business interruption may arise, especially if bridges and large buildings are damaged as well.
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