NU Online News Service, Sept. 8, 2:08 p.m. EDT
Aon Benfield's catastrophe model development center, Impact Forecasting, estimates U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Irene of between $1.6 billion and $6.6 billion.
"Nearly 8 million power outages were recorded at its peak, as well as damage to tens of thousands of homes, businesses, other structures and vehicles," Aon Benfield says.
The wide range nearly encompasses the two full estimate ranges of two other catastrophe modelers, Eqecat and AIR Worldwide. Eqecat estimates losses of between $1.5 billion and $2.8 billion, while AIR estimates losses of between $3 billion and $6 billion.
Speaking to the difference in estimates, Karen Clark, president and CEO of Karen Clark & Co. says the available data so far is lacking, and modelers are making different assumptions off of this limited data to come up with estimates. "They [modelers] are looking at exactly the same data, but very little is available," Clark says. "The modeling is highly sensitive to any change in assumptions."
Overestimate wind speed by a couple of miles-per-hour and the loss estimate can change 50-to-100 percent, offers Clark as an example.
As for current Atlantic storms, in addition to Tropical Storm Maria and Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and appears as if it could strike land somewhere near the Texas-Mexico border sometime next week.
According to the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast, Nate is expected to intensify to hurricane-strength over the weekend as it moves slowly and takes a turn to the northwest.
Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for Chilitepec to Celestun.
For Hurricane Katia, a tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda as the storm passes between the island and the U.S. East Coast. Katia remains on track to take a sharp turn to the northeast and head out to sea.
Tropical Storm Maria is heading toward the Antilles, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for islands there.
The extended NHC forecast track has the storm moving northwest toward the Florida coast, but an AccuWeather report says the storm should follow a similar track to Katia, albeit making a closer pass to the East Coast.
"Those along the East Coast should also monitor Maria since its track bypassing the United States is not set in stone," the report, written by AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologis Alex Sosnowski, says.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Coordinator Dan Kottlowski adds in the report that at the very least, "Maria might track closer to the United States [than Katia]."
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