Al-Qaida Clones Have Become Top Global Terror Threat; Modeling Is Possible

True, Al-Qaida may be in decline, says Hoffman, but it is a "bit premature to declare victory" because within the last 2-3 years, al-Qaida has expanded its network, especially in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

"Al-Qaida clones have exceeded the parent body," says Hoffman, speaking at a terrorism risk seminar held by catastrophe risk modeler Risk Management Solutions Inc. "Today there are many al-Qaidas in many different places. Their access to safe havens has not diminished."

This negates a one-size-fits-all strategy against these uprisings, Hoffman adds. Al-Qaida may be weakened and there may be a jihadi fragmentation following the killing of bin Laden, but a consequence of this is additional threats have formed—and the U.S. military is bracing to have less resources following budget cuts, Hoffman says.

Al-Qaida has succeeded, and continues to succeed, in inspiring affiliated terror groups like AQAP, adds Rohan Gunaratna, head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism research in Singapore. About 30 different groups have formed in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Gunaratna says these groups have become the "single biggest threat." 

While the threat to the U.S. may have decreased due to significantly improved security and intelligence since Sept. 11, the terrorist threat has increased globally, Gunaratna adds.

The U.S. has "failed to disrupt the ideology—the propaganda disseminated by al-Qaida," he tells a packed house of insurance executives and risk managers. There has been no effort to initiate a de-radicalization program for imprisoned terrorists, he adds.

Looking ahead, al-Qaida is hoping for several things to happen. The U.S. has punished Pakistan by slashing aid to the country since bin Laden was found there. Al-Qaida is banking on worsening Pakistan-U.S. relations to maintain this safe haven, Hoffman said.

(Gunaratna says that though Pakistan supported the emergence of the Taliban—an Islamist militia group in Afghanistan—from 1995-2001, the government likely didn't know where bin Laden was. If they did, "they would have arrested him and claimed the $25 million [bounty]," he says.)

Al-Qaida is also hoping bin Laden's killing inspires extremists, while its new leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, enjoys a smooth transition. The group will be looking for a significant terror incident to "catapult the al-Qaida core" and for "lone wolves" to stay motivated, flooding intelligence with "noise," says Hoffman.

Noise is all these solo or (or small groups of) terrorists are likely to create, according to Gordon Woo, a catastrophist with RMS who created its risk model.

Woo says it is possible to model the frequency of major terror attacks because "every human being has some kind of social network." Understanding these networks leads to an understanding of successful significant terror attacks.

"Ambitious plots require too many people—too many guys involved to keep the integrity of the plot secret," he explains, citing the U.S. policy on eavesdropping. Therefore, the chances that these larger plots are thwarted increases. The social networking webs each create gives investigators more opportunities to accumulate data and follow communications to the plot's architects.  

Though smaller groups have a better chance of carrying out a terrorist plot, these attacks are not likely to cause significant damage or death.