CSU Revises Hurricane Forecast, Expects 16 Named Storms

NU Online News Service, April 6, 3:06 p.m. EDT

The Colorado State University forecast team is lowering its December estimate for the upcoming Atlantic basin hurricane season, but still expects an active season of 16 named storms.

Previously, the team projected 17 named storms in 2011, including nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Despite lowering the estimate to 16 named storms, the team still expects nine hurricanes with five major hurricanes.

“We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will contribute to an active season,” says Phil Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “We have reduced our forecast slightly from early December due to a combination of recent ocean warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic.”

Team member William Gray adds, “We remain—since 1995—in a favorable multidecadal period for enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so. Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, U.S. coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent 9-of-11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”

Yesterday, Tropical Storm Risk said it expects 14 named storms with between seven and eight hurricanes.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists called for 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The average hurricane season has about 10 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.