Despite sinkholes, hurricanes, high unemployment, and massive housing foreclosures, Florida still ranks among the country's three top growth states, according to the 2010 U.S. Census. The Sunshine State gained almost 3 million people in the past decade and today boasts a population of 19 million, a 17 percent hike since the previous nationwide tally in 2000.
Miami-Dade, with a population of 2,496,435, ranks as Florida's largest county. The other counties in the state's top five are Broward, with a population of 1,748,066 (increase of 7.7 percent since 2000); Palm Beach, 1,320,134 (increase of 16.7 percent); Hillsborough, 1,229,226 (increase of 23.1 percent); and Orange, 1,145,956 (increase of 27.8 percent). Miami-Dade posted a 10.8 percent growth rate. While Pinellas is the most densely populated county in the state, it showed a dip in population, going from Florida's fifth most-populous county in 2000 to sixth in 2010.
Jacksonville is by far the most populous incorporated area with 821,784 residents. Miami ranks a distant second with 399,457, followed closely by Tampa at 335,709. Dipping down to under 300,000 are St. Petersburg, 244,769, and Orlando, 238,300. Jacksonville grew by 11.7 percent since the 2000 census; Miami grew by 10.2 percent; Tampa grew by 10.6 percent; and Orlando grew by 28.2 percent. St. Petersburg, however, decreased by 1.4 percent.
The census further revealed that Florida's ethnic make-up has shifted dramatically over the past decade:
- The state's Hispanic/Latino population increased about 57 percent from 2000 to 2010. In 2000, the ethnic group made up nearly 17 percent of the total population. That percentage grew to 22.5 in 2010.
- The black/African-American population also increased, from 15 percent of the population in 2000 to 17 percent in 2010.
- Asians were the fastest-growing minority in the last 10 years, increasing by 71 percent. There are now more than a half-million Asians in the state; the largest increase occurred in Orange County.
Redrawing the Maps in 2012
While the census numbers are interesting, the real intrigue in the coming months will center on how these statistics will factor into the 2012 legislative redistricting process.
Every ten years, each state is required by the U.S. Constitution to redraw its congressional and legislative boundary lines based upon census results. Florida's deadline for completion of this task is June 18, 2012. The Senate Reapportionment Committee, chaired by Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, has already held meetings; the House Reapportionment Committee, chaired by Rep. Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel, has yet to announce its members.
Redistricting is always controversial and fraught with high emotion. The population changes revealed in the 2010 census promise to make it more so this time. Some districts have grown considerably while others have experienced weak growth or shrinkage. (Florida's overall population growth means it will add two congressional districts, increasing its clout in Washington, D.C., but the number of seats in the state House and Senate chambers will be unchanged.)
With population shifts, district lines must be redrawn to ensure adequate representation. For the Florida Senate, each of its 40 members should have 470,033 citizens in their districts. The ideal constituent count for House members is 156,678 citizens per district.
In order to get close to an even distribution of constituents per legislator, districts must be drawn without regard to land size. Except — and here is the rub — Amendments 5 and 6, voted into Florida's Constitution in 2010, stipulate that legislative districts must be contiguous, compact, and not be drawn to "favor or disfavor" incumbents or racial or language minorities.
However, Florida also is required under the Voting Rights Act to draw some districts that can elect minorities. Critics argue that given the racial make-up of the two major parties, a district drawn to elect blacks/African-Americans will almost certainly disfavor Republicans.
In the past, redistricting battles often have been fought along party lines. This time, it is expected that the scrimmages will occur along geographic boundaries. Politicians of every stripe in growth areas such as Southwest and Central Florida will try to exert their newfound power over their colleagues in slow-growth areas such as South Florida. (The five-county Central Florida region gained 541,000 residents in the past decade; Ft. Myers also showed significant growth.)
Florida has a history of haphazard growth, making redistricting problematic. The evolving ethnic balances within these recent growth spurts only add to the emotionally charged political environment. Rich Heffley, a strategist who has worked for the state Republican party during the last two rounds of redistricting, called the once-a-decade activity "designed chaos."
Then There's the Budget
A more immediate issue — money — is currently the major topic in Tallahassee. Legislators and Gov. Rick Scott are struggling to find ways to service the state's current 19 million residents with a budget shortfall of an estimated $3.75 billion. The Republican-controlled Legislature, which is meeting now through May 6, has taken tax and fee increases off the table. If revenue is not increased, expenditures must be decreased. Critics fear that cuts in the areas of education, health care, and social services will undermine Florida's quality of life for years to come. If so, growth will no longer be an issue.
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