2011: A Different Take On the Year Ahead

Editors are notorious for filling their January opinion pieces with predictions for the New Year, and National Underwriter's editors are up to the task as well for 2011.

It's such a gloomy day outside our offices in Hoboken today that I thought I'd lift some spirits with a set of light-hearted predictions. Here is a digested version of the list that also appears in the Jan. 10 edition of NU's print magazine.

To ease us into the year ahead, I facetiously suggest that 2011 may include the following events:

• The role of the Federal Insurance Office will remain a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

• After passage of the omnibus bill of the industry's dreams, the homeowners market will experience a resurgence in Florida. Before the champagne is finished, someone realizes there could be something wrong with the auto no-fault system.

• As a sign of continued difficult economic times, the industry deals with the rising numbers of homeowners burning down their homes, although no one knows where or has any statistics.

• A hurricane will maybe definitely strike somewhere in the United States.

• Beginning in October, people in cars will begin to hit deer more often (or at least we'll get a lot of press releases about it.)

• Long after anyone with a computer realized the same, the industry continues to talk about how social media may have constructive uses.

• AIG Repays Government; Conquers Planet.

I'm also providing some betting lines on two relevant issues:

• The over-under on the amount of times the National Flood Insurance Program sunsets and then extended after September is 4

• The over-under on the number of times the alleged effects of Chinese drywall are explained in stories: 31.

• The number of homeowners ultimately successful in drywall litigation against insurers: 0

Finally, what will be in and what will be out? Here is my own unique perspective.

• Out: The use of credit scores as an underwriting tool.

• In: Accident/crash taxes.