Catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions said the end of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is not the time to relax. Conditions “are still ripe for further activity.”
Neena Saith, senior catastrophe response manager for RMS, said wind shear, which can break up a hurricane, is low and sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea remain warm.
Wind shear conditions “are expected to reduce over the next few days across the Caribbean,” which will “play a key role in hurricane activity over the coming weeks.”
However, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are dropping to below the threshold to support tropical cyclone activity, RMS said.
About 20 hurricanes have formed in November since 1950, RMS said. Most affected the Caribbean, and just four reached major hurricane (Category 3) status.
The Caribbean storm Tomas, which reached hurricane strength after forming on Oct. 29, was the fifth hurricane of the month and the 12th hurricane of this season.
Only two seasons–1969 and 2005–have seen 12 or more hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Tomas was expected to strengthen again into a Category 1 hurricane and hit the extreme southwest of Haiti on Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.
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