A handful of threats hang over the collective heads of Americans trying to recover from the recession–threats that each have the potential to block the road to prosperity, an intelligence expert said here.
General Michael Hayden, retired director of the Central Intelligence Agency, speaking at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America meeting here, outlined five possible roadblocks to economic recovery: Iran, China, cyberspace, Mexico and terrorism.
Large-scale attempts at terrorism have been thwarted by intelligence, but less-complex ones are likely to succeed, said the general, who is also former director of the National Security Administration and deputy director of National Intelligence. Those plans, he added, will be "less lethal but more numerous."
The question now posed is one of civil liberty–as in how much Americans are willing to give up to pursue smaller-scale attacks, he wondered aloud, suggesting it is likely that Americans are not willing to give up much more.
The second question surrounds the needed ability to keep legitimate secrets in a culture that increasingly demands more transparency, he said.
Still, the country is doing "pretty well" in its war against terror. "It is much more difficult [for terrorists] to mount a preferred brand of attack," Gen. Hayden said.
Other threats have been not been dealt with, he said.
Iran, the top sponsor of terrorism, is on its way to gaining nuclear capability. "If that doesn't make you double-clutch, I don't know what will," he said.
Behind terrorism, Iran was the second-most discussed topic when he was in government, Gen. Hayden said, but a concrete course of action has not been determined and will probably not need to be until the next presidential term. Although serious, Iranian nuclear capability is "less urgent than the press would have you believe," he said.
While China is not an enemy of the United States, the general said he was personally in "awe" of the sophistication of China's espionage efforts. Doing business in China has become increasingly difficult, he said, likening the country to a teenager whose strength and capacity outpaces his judgment.
Moving down the list of threats, he called the cyber world a "dangerous place," with no one identifiable enemy to target. Cyber terrorism is "in your backyard," with the capability of directly impacting an enterprise, he said, although he downplayed so-called "cyber Pearl Harbors."
Finally, the drug war in Mexico has grown so serious that the Mexican government has lost control in some critical areas of the county, and the United States is debating whether to judge the Mexican drug lords as an insurgency–an important distinction in terms of the kind of assistance offered by the United States.
The general concluded that our country's defense agencies need to be recapitalized to defend against threats beyond the war on terror. Much of the focus so far has been squarely on terrorism.
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