Hurricane Paula Presents Uncertainty For Forecasters

NU Online News Service, Oct. 13, 11:08 a.m. EDT

Hurricane Paula is causing uncertainty among forecasters over the long term as the Category 2 hurricane is predicted to spend time over Cuba, but there are questions about its direction from there.

Forecasters know the hurricane, which now has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, is located about 55 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico, and has shifted to the east from original track forecasts.

Over the next 18 hours, Hurricane Paula is expected to track to the east toward Cuba. At that predicted time of landfall at western Cuba, Paula will be a borderline tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

However, the NHC said there is a "large spread in operational model guidance" beyond Thursday.

Catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) said, "There is less confidence in the storm track than normal at this time..." The storm's path will depend on land interaction and other factors, like wind shear, which could break up the storm.

The storm should reach the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, about 45 miles from the East coast of Mexico, which includes the tourist resort of Cancun. RMS said the resort shouldn't be affected by the hurricanes small wind field. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Mexican coast from Punta Allen to Cabo Catoche and for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, RMS said.

The storm is expected to drop three to six inches of rain over the Eastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and Western and central Cuba. Isolated rainfall amounts of 10 inches are possible, the NHC said. Storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding.

Early this afternoon, catastrophe modeler EQECAT put out an estimate putting insured losses at less than $200 million from Hurricane Paula.

Paula, which grew from a tropical storm to a hurricane in 12 hours, set a new record for the fastest intensification since the 1970s, when data on storm intensification was first collected, according to EQECAT.

This story was updated at 12:28 p.m. EDT