NU Online News Service, Sept. 22, 2:54 p.m. EDT
Modeler AIR Worldwide said insured losses from Hurricane Karl, which struck Mexico twice last week, will be in the range of $100 million to $200 million.
The estimate includes expected wind and flood damage to properties in Mexico from the hurricane, which hit near Veracruz last Friday as a Category 3 storm.
Hurricane Karl was the eleventh-named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Insurance penetration in Mexico is relatively low, AIR said. However, economic losses from the storm are "likely to be significant," the modeler said.
Karl has produced a large amount of rain in the area, causing some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels, AIR said. The area had already experienced torrential rains in February and, in fact, more than 100,000 people in Veracruz remained out of their homes from previous floods even before Karl's arrival, AIR said.
Cities affected by floods from Karl include Boca del Rio, Cotaxtla, Carranza, Jamapa, Medellin and Oaxaca.
The twelfth-named storm, Tropical Storm Lisa, developed on Tuesday and is currently about 530 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde islands, according to modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS). The storm currently carries sustained winds of 40 mph and is expected to intensity.
Modelers are also keeping a close eye on another developing storm at the top of South America. The National Hurricane Center said this system has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
Neena Saith, senior response manager for RMS, said the storm–potentially the thirteenth-named storm of the season–could indeed be unlucky. Some models have the storm headed into the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions would be ripe for its strengthening.
Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR, said models have predicted a storm in this area for the better part of a week.
Mr. Doggett explained that another weather phenomenon, the "Bermuda high," could impact hurricane tracks the rest of the season. This pressure system will keep hurricanes farther to the south of Bermuda, making paths like those taken by hurricanes Igor and Earl unlikely.
Weather Services International (WSI) recently increased its predicted number of hurricanes this season by one. WSI now predicts 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
"Although the primary storm track has been for storms to approach the eastern U.S. seaboard before curving out to sea, there are indications that this pattern is changing and that the danger to the U.S. coastline may be increasing going forward," noted Todd Crawford, WSI chief meteorologist.
The hurricane season remains on course to be significantly above average in terms of tropical cyclonic activity. Only two seasons since 1950 have seen more named storms develop before Sept. 21–those were in 1995 and 2005.
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