NU Online News Service, Sept. 13, 11:42 a.m. EDT
Hurricane Igor, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is currently a Category 4 hurricane and could intensify further over the next couple of days.
At this stage, the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast shows no threat to land over the next five days. Guy Carpenter's Instrat unit and catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide said it remains unclear whether the storm will end up impacting the U.S. East Coast or Bermuda in the future.
AIR said it will monitor the system as it heads northwest toward Bermuda.
As of the NHC's 11:00 a.m. EDT update today, Igor was about 880 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at around 13 miles per hour. It is expected to turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in speed tonight or Tuesday.
Guy Carpenter said the current expected track has the storm curving away from the northern Leeward Islands.
The NHC said some fluctuation in strength is expected over the next 48 hours, and the storm could become a Category 5 hurricane later today or tomorrow.
Catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) said, "Model guidance suggests that the system is more likely to maintain its current intensity rather than intensify to Category 5…however, forecasting the intensity of very strong tropical cyclones is notoriously uncertain." RMS added that most models agree Igor will remain a major hurricane over the next four to five days.
Igor has maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour, according to the NHC. Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles from the storm's center, and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles.
Further east in the Atlantic Ocean, about 115 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, Tropical Storm Julia is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days and could become a hurricane by Wednesday, the NHC said.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Cape Verde Islands of Maio, Sao, Tiago, Fogo and Brava.
No further threat to land is forecast over the next five days as Julia moves west across the Atlantic.
Julia is the tenth tropical storm of the season, and AIR noted that September is typically the most active month for tropical storms.
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