Cat 3 Hurricane Earl Triggers N.C. Hurricane Warning

A hurricane warning is in effect for the East Coast of the U.S. from Bogue Inlet, N.C., to the North Carolina/Virginia border as Category 3 Hurricane Earl bears down on the region.

The hurricane warning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) explained, means hurricane conditions are expected in the area.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell has declared a state of emergency in the state, "a step authorizing state agencies to take precautionary action to prepare for any potential impacts in eastern Virginia from Hurricane Earl," according to a statement.

Dare County ordered a mandatory evacuation for all Hatteras Island visitors. Hyde County ordered a mandatory evacuation for visitors and residents of the island Ocracoke.

A hurricane watch is in effect for north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Del.

Additionally, the NHC said interests from New Jersey to New England should "monitor the progress of Earl."

The storm, which has weakened from its Category 4 status yesterday but is still a major hurricane, was located 815 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., as of 11:00 EDT, according to the NHC. It is moving toward the northwest at around 17 miles per hour, the NHC said, and is expected to approach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday.

Earl is expected to turn north over the next day and track parallel to the U.S. East Coast.

"Earl is a large hurricane," the NHC said. "Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles [from the center]."

The NHC said there is a possibility the hurricane could regain some intensity, but added most estimates point to gradual weakening over the next day or two, before the storm moves over cooler waters and into increasing wind shear that would cause increased weakening. By day five of the forecast, Earl should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone well north of Canada, the NHC said.

Catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) said a direct landfall is not forecast at this stage.

Because of the forecasted track, risk modeler Eqecat said the expected maximum onshore winds should be Category 1 or lower, rather than the full-force Category 3 conditions. If that is the case, Eqecat said insured losses would likely be less than $100 million for the event.

But Eqecat said the trajectory of Earl adds "significant uncertainty in projecting losses." If the storm continues to trend to the west, the storm could pass closer to the mainland, creating stronger onshore conditions. "An evaluation of Category 2 and 3 storms with tracks approximately 100 miles to the west of the current 'best track' highlights the potential for Earl to cause losses approaching [$500 million]," Eqecat said.

RMS added that a slight deviation to the west means that "North Carolina and potentially other states to the north" could be exposed to hurricane force winds.

Many companies in the insurance industry, meanwhile, have been sending out statements urging customers to be prepared for Hurricane Earl. Companies such as Ohio Casualty, Montgomery Insurance, Chartis, Zurich and Nationwide have issued such statements, as has the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America.

As for damage already done by Hurricane Earl, RMS said, "Following Earl's passage by the northern Leeward Islands in the last 48 hours, reports indicate that Earl was of sufficient magnitude to trigger the hurricane coverage of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) for Anguilla, the only island that was subject to hurricane force winds."

RMS said the CCRIF has reported that Anguilla is to receive just over $4 million. Other areas covered by CCRIF policies were less severely impacted by Earl, and there has been no indication from the CCRIF that coverage has been triggered in those countries, RMS said.

This article was updated to correct the spelling of Eqecat.