WSI Lowers Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, Still Expects Active Season

Weather Services International (WSI) again lowered its predictions for named storms and hurricanes for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, but the forecast is still well above the long-term average.

WSI, of Andover, Mass.--a member of The Weather Channel Companies--is calling for 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes are forecast to be major--Category 3 or higher.

In June, WSI predicted 20 named storms, but lowered (http://www.property-casualty.com/News/2010/7/Pages/WSI-Lowers-Hurricane-Forecast-19-Named-Storms-Expected.aspx?k=wsi) its estimate to 19 named storms and 11 hurricanes after a slow start to the season.

Although the forecast was lowered, WSI said it is well above the long-term averages of 10 named storms and six hurricanes.

Conditions are still optimal for an active season this year, WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said. "Although the season hasn't had a record-breaking start, historically warm tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should mean that the upcoming three months will be very active," he explained.

He added, "We have reduced our numbers a bit to account for the lagged start but are still just as bullish as ever on the remainder of the season."

He said slow starts during emerging La Nina events are common. "Over the last seven tropical seasons where a transition to La Nina occurred, 85 percent of all named storms occurred after August 16. This means we are still very, very early in the season," Mr. Crawford said.

"While the early part of the season has been hampered by small destructive pockets of wind shear and widespread dry air, likely parting gifts from the recent strong El Nino event, the atmosphere is now quickly becoming more favorable for tropical development," he added.

Mr. Crawford said Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain at record warm levels, "even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005."

WSI also said its hurricane landfall forecasting model, which was developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter, suggests that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.