NU Online News Service, Aug. 5, 2:21 p.m. EDT
The lead hurricane forecaster for the National Weather Service said there is a 90 percent chance of an above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic as the season enters its peak of activity.
Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said today that all the factors are in place for a very active hurricane season, adding that 2010 could be the 11th above normal season in the past 16 years.
As the hurricane season enters its peak of activity, August through October, the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA, predicted this season's activity could see:
o 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher)
o 8 to 12 hurricanes (winds topping 74 mph or higher)
o 4 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of at least 111 mph)
The prediction includes the three named storms of this year–Alex, Bonnie and Colin.
The outlook lowers the upper figure of May's prediction, but Mr. Bell emphasized that the important factor is this season could turn out to be a very active one and that people need to be prepared for it.
Mr. Bell said there are three factors for the increased activity. One, the season is in the 16th year of a multi-decadal pattern where increased hurricane activity lasts for 25 to 40 years. Two, the Atlantic waters are "exceptionally warm" running two to three degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Three, a La Ni?a pattern has formed in the Pacific, which cools the waters, producing less wind sheer activity over the Atlantic, which destroys hurricanes.
The predictions do not include landfall activity, which Mr. Bell said cannot be made with any accuracy until five to seven days in advance of a
storm. The prediction also does not indicate the likelihood of storms forming in the mid-Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.
He noted that the current models are good at tracking storms, but have trouble predicting intensity at this time.
Yesterday, forecasters at Colorado State University said there is a 75 percent chance of at least one major storm hitting the U.S. coast with five major storms forming this season.
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