Weather Services International (WSI) has slightly lowered its forecast for the 2010 tropical storm season due to a "relatively inactive June/July period."
Instead of predicting 20 named storms for the entire season, WSI dropped the number down one spot to 19 named storms. However, it kept the same numbers from its June 23 forecast for two other categories: Hurricanes (11) and Intense Hurricanes (5).
"While all of the primary drivers are strongly enabling for tropical activity, we have had a slow start relative to other very active seasons," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, in a release. "Further, a pocket of very dry air in the tropical Atlantic will likely limit development in the near-term. Because of these factors, we have decreased our forecast total number…[but] we still expect an extremely active August-October period."
Even with the slight adjustment, the 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term averages (1950-2009), which consist of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Compared to the more active recent 15-year period (1995-2009), the numbers are slightly above the average of 14/8/4.
Crawford also indicated that the Northeast still had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season.
"Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that the coastline from the Outer Banks to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, relative to the normal rates, which are, admittedly, quite small," he said. "Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states."
Source: www.wsi.com
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