AIR Updates U.S. Hurricane Model

Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide has released its latest U.S. hurricane model, which contains hazard and vulnerability updates and provides "a more comprehensive, realistic and detailed view of U.S. hurricane risk," according to the company.

AIR said the latest model's hazard module incorporates improved knowledge of the full structure of hurricanes, including the development of the storm footprint over time, the rate of the decrease in wind speed moving away from the eye of a hurricane, and the relationship between upper-level and surface winds.

The model also uses United States Geological Survey Land Use Land Cover data, published in 2007, to account for the directional effects of wind on locations, said AIR.

The Boston-based modeling firm said the new model incorporates three new states--Illinois, Indiana and Missouri--to provide more perspective on inland hurricane losses.

"In addition, the methodology for storm track and decay after landfall now allows for more variability in the post-landfall evolution of events," AIR said.

Using updated claims data from recent storms, AIR said it has also improved the vulnerability estimates of the model. The new model also takes into account building codes, building materials and construction practices.

"This update to the AIR U.S. hurricane model is the culmination of more than three years of research by AIR's sizable team of scientists and engineers," said AIR's Peter Dailey. "The updated model provides a state-of-the-art view of U.S. hurricane risk that will enable insurers, reinsurers, brokers and investors in insurance-linked securities to quantify and manage their risk more effectively."

The AIR Hurricane Model for the United States is currently available in Version 12.0 of CLASIC/2T, CATRADER and CATStation catastrophe risk management systems, AIR said.