High Cyclone Year Predicted For South China, Korea/Japan

NU Online News Service, June 8, 12:35 p.m. EDT

Tropical cyclone activity for the South China and Korea/Japan regions could be above normal in 2010, according to a Guy Carpenter briefing.

Guy Carpenter's Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) predicted six tropical cyclones will make landfall in the South China region, above the average of five.

GCACIC said an anomalous geopotential high in the Western North Pacific region increases the likelihood of cyclones making landfall, despite a neutral El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation year, which would normally suggest below-average activity.

For the Korea/Japan region, GCACIC said its results should be treated as "experimental," as this year will be its first attempt at making a tropical cyclone statistical prediction for the region.

GCACIC predicted six cyclones to make landfall, above the normal value of four. "A potential break in the subtropical high could produce an anomalous southerly flow, helping steer tropical cyclones toward Korea and Japan and making the higher-than-normal prediction plausible," GCACIC said.