NU Online News Service, June 2, 3:42 p.m. EDT
International counterterrorism efforts appear to be stifling the ability of terrorist groups to mount significant attacks on the scale of those of Sept. 11 according to the 2010 Aon Terrorism Threat Map, issued today by Aon Crisis Management, a subsidiary Chicago-base insurance broker Aon Corp.
According to the analysis, al-Qaida in particular is being forced to focus on building its networks in traditional conflict zones, Aon said. Concerns remain, however, about such networks and followers in Europe and North America as well as the re-emergence of more traditional left, right and nationalist terrorist groups.
Despite an apparent slight downward trend in attack frequency in recent months, established insurgencies continue to provide the focal points for terrorism: Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Somalia and Yemen are the modern battlefronts, Aon continued.
The map, produced by Aon in collaboration with security consultancy firm Janusian, reflects data recorded by Terrorism Tracker, which monitors global indicators of terrorism threat including attacks, plots, communiqu?s and government countermeasures, Aon said.
These findings represent a contemporary snapshot of the violent potential of terrorist groups in over 200 countries. Each country is assigned a threat level, starting at Low, and rising through Guarded, Elevated, High and Severe.
These threat levels are determined by scoring each country based on the following threat indicators for 2010:
o Evidence of known and active groups or networks operating in a given country.
o Aims and stated objectives of these groups or networks.
o Track record of terrorist activity by these groups or networks, including target selection and activity levels.
o Operational capabilities of these groups or networks to stage attacks.
o Likely erosion of terrorist capabilities through the current counterterrorism regime in the given country.
While the U.S. remains classified as elevated on the map again this year, a number of terrorist incidents occurring within the U.S. during 2009, including the Fort Hood massacre, the foiled Christmas Day airliner attack over Detroit and last month's bomb scare in New York's Times Square, have helped push the U.S. higher up within the elevated classification.
General Richard Myers, retired chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and a member of Aon's board of directors, said, "If you are looking at whether, on a global scale, we are safer from terrorism this year than last, the difference is marginal, but reflects the pressure we have exerted on our foes over the long term to contain their growth."
Access to Aon's interactive 2010 Terrorism Threat Map and hard copies can be requested at www.aon.com/terrorismmap.
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