Beneficial, Harmful Hurricane Effects On Oil Spill Examined

While the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to affect the formation or speed of hurricanes, the direction of storms could either further harm or help efforts to keep the spill from sensitive wetlands and vacation spots, a catastrophe modeler said.

On the heels of news reports focusing on the potential implications of a hurricane strike on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Rig spill, Boston-based AIR Worldwide issued its own roundup and analysis.

Although the current spill is "historic in extent," AIR said, it covers only about 3 percent of the Gulf, and is therefore unlikely to cut off enough water evaporation to choke off storm formation.

"If a group of thunderstorms that might otherwise grow into a hurricane did happen to pass directly over the spill," AIR said, "development could theoretically stall as storm cells are cut off from the water surface. But even much of the spill area remains patchy."

For storms that have already developed, impact is likewise estimated to be negligible, AIR said. "The winds even at the edge of the storm would easily whip the seas into such a frenzy that the oil would mix with the ocean below, exposing enough water to the surface that evaporation could take place and continue supplying fuel to the storm," the catastrophe modeler said.

However, impact on mitigation efforts could be severe, according to AIR. If a tropical storm moves into the area, AIR noted, all rescue, spill control, coordination, and other activities would have to be halted.

Barriers designed to keep oil away from the coast would be unmanned and "completely overwhelmed by tropical storm winds and high seas...," AIR added.

A single strong wind or storm surge event could breach barriers in place designed to protect animals' habitats, AIR said.

But a hurricane "making a glancing blow with the oil spill has some potential upsides," AIR said. A storm could disperse the spill and mix the oil with ocean water, thus making it more dilute and less harmful.

The ultimate effects of dispersing too much of the oil, though, are unknown, AIR said.

A precisely located hurricane crossing from the Florida Keys toward the panhandle, AIR said, could provide enough rain and wind in the right direction to push harmful oil off the shore and back out to sea.

But while beneficial to cleanup efforts, AIR noted, the hypothetical scenario is "quite specific" and involves "a large amount of destruction" since it entails oil making landfall followed by a land-falling hurricane.