Hurricane Rick Insured Loss Should Be Light, Says AIR

NU Online News Service, Oct. 20, 12:54 p.m. EDT

Hurricane Rick should do little damage in hitting the expensive insured commercial properties in Mexico's Baja Peninsula, AIR Worldwide catastrophe modeling firm said.

The firm noted yesterday that the storm was weakening to a Category 3 hurricane with winds up to 130 mph from its Category 5 status Saturday morning when its winds were 180 miles per hour, AIR said.

At its peak intensity, the firm said Hurricane Rick became the second-strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record and the strongest ever to form in the eastern basin in October.

The National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Rick will continue to weaken as it interacts with cooler waters and unfavorable weather conditions.

It is forecast to arrive near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula early tomorrow, possibly with hurricane-force winds and brief periods of heavy rainfall. An anticipated increase in its forward speed should minimize flooding, said AIR.

Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, said "the tip of the Baja peninsula where Rick is expected to make landfall is a tourist destination and contains a significant number of insured commercial properties. AIR estimates that commercial exposures in the municipality of Los Cabos are about $2.06 billion."

Commercial properties in the region, said Mr. Doggett, tend to be constructed of confined masonry or reinforced concrete. Both construction types should fare well at the wind speeds currently forecast at landfall.

"While it is possible that many buildings are likely to suffer damage to roofs and sidings as well as to non-structural elements such as balconies and signage, structural damage is expected to be minimal," he said.

Rick's hurricane-force winds extend outward from its center up to 40 miles while its tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 150 miles, AIR said. The government of Mexico issued a hurricane watch for southern Baja California, from Santa Fe southward on the west coast of the Baja peninsula.

Hurricane Rick originated Thursday as a tropical depression several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, said Mr. Doggett.

The forecaster said Rick had become a hurricane within 24 hours--and intensified to maximum strength hurricane Category 5 status in only 36 hours. "However, increasing wind shear, warming deep convection around its eye and movement into dry air restrained Rick's continued outflow to the west and weakened it significantly," Mr. Doggett remarked.

He added that Rick's forward speed is forecast to increase and its track to turn more to the north and northeast. He said the storm will encounter both drier air and enhanced wind shear, leading to a further gradual decrease in storm intensity. However, despite weakening, Rick is still forecast to be at hurricane strength as it passes the southern Baja area.

Rick is the seventh hurricane of this year's eastern north Pacific season and only the 11th Category 5 eastern Pacific hurricane since 1970, when reliable records began.

AIR noted that on the opposite side of the Pacific, another late-season tropical cyclone, Category 4 Typhoon Lupit, has continued its movement toward the main Philippines island of Luzon, already devastated by Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana.

Peter Sousounis, Principal Scientist at AIR Worldwide, said if Lupit makes landfall on Luzon on Thursday as currently forecast (perhaps as a strong Category 1 typhoon), "it is expected to bring yet another 12 inches and more of rain to the already-soaked land of the region."