Philippines Insured Loss Seen Low After Ketsana Destruction

NU Online News Service, Sept. 29, 3:24 p.m. EDT

Before hitting Vietnam, Typhoon Ketsana, the weekend storm that struck the Philippines, reportedly destroyed more than 2,000 homes there and killed 240 persons, but a modeling firm said insured losses should be low.

AIR in Boston said, "At this time, AIR does not expect [Philippines] insured losses will be significant."

Ketsana hit Manila with winds only at tropical storm levels, but the heavy rain combined with a monsoon to pour down 16.2 inches of rain in 12 hours, AIR said.

Risk Management Solutions catastrophe modeling firm in Newark, Calif., said the latest damage statistics from the Philippines National Disaster Coordinating Council showed more than 1.87 million people have been affected by the flooding and it has been reported that 2,223 houses have been totally destroyed by the flooding, with 1,049 houses left partially damaged.

RMS said south of Hanoi, 5,500 houses were underwater and in central Vietnam 5,000 homes were flooded.

AIR reported that the Philippines National Disaster Coordinating Council yesterday gave an estimate of about $30 million in damage to infrastructure and agriculture. The firm noted that as flood waters have begun receding, large parts of Manila have been left covered in mud and debris with cars left tossed about, sometimes on top of each other.

In Vietnam, thousands were ordered evacuated before the typhoon, which had maximum winds of 104 mph, and the government shut down airports, schools and power in the Danang areas.

RMS said Ketsana was forecast to continue tracking west across Vietnam, moving further inland where it will rapidly weaken to a tropical depression. Before that, however, AIR said it could have sustained winds of slightly more than 109 mph.

"While many new buildings in the Philippines are constructed of concrete and masonry materials in place of traditional indigenous building materials, poor construction practices and low-quality materials have exacerbated building damage," commented Peter Sousounis, AIR principal scientist.