Hurricane Forecast Downgraded Slightly On El Ni?o

NU Online News Service, Aug. 4, 3:25 p.m. EDT

Colorado State University forecasters slightly lowered their tropical storm outlook, saying arrival of a Pacific El Ni?o weather system will help lower the formation of Atlantic Basin hurricanes.

The team of William Gray and Phil Klotzbach reduced the number of named storms predicted for this season from 11 to 10 and said that among hurricanes that are formed they still believe only two will be capable of reaching a sustained wind speed greater than 111 mph.

Mr. Gray, who is in his 26th year of forecasting hurricanes, said in a statement: "We have witnessed the development of an El Ni?o event over the past couple of months. These conditions are expected to intensify to a moderate El Ni?o over the next few months. El Ni?o events tend to be associated with increased levels of vertical wind shear and decreased levels of Atlantic hurricane activity."

"Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies have warmed somewhat since our early June prediction and surface pressures have fallen somewhat," said Mr. Klotzbach, the lead author of the forecasts.

In addition to the 10 named storms and two major storms, the forecasters predict four of the named storms will become hurricanes. The June prediction was 11 named storms and five hurricanes.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. So far this year, there have been no named storms.

The forecasters said there is a 46 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline. The long-term average is 52 percent.

They went on to say there is a 27 percent chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and put the chances of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to west of Brownsville, Texas, at 26 percent.

The chances of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean and Central America are slightly higher at 37 percent, still below the long-term average of 42 percent.