I was skeptical when my friend Milton insisted that none of the key elements of health care reform legislation would take effect for four years, thus rendering moot the charge by critics that coverage mandates would overburden businesses recovering from the current recession. Turns out Milton was right! That lag time should dramatically change the debate, except no one seems to know about this.
I asked our Washington Editor, Dave Postal, to check into this, and sure enough, the implementation timeline put out on July 14 by a trio of House committees shows that the launch of a public health insurance plan, the imposition of employer and individual coverage mandates (as well as penalties for those who do not willingly buy in), and bans on discriminating against individuals with pre-existing conditions would not kick in until 2013!
I don't think many are aware of this critical point. My sense is that most people assume if President Barack Obama has an historic signing ceremony this year, health reforms will be in place in 2010. Not so!
I am amazed I haven't seen any news coverage about this, nor read any columnists or heard any talking heads lambasting Congress for the delay.
Where is the public outrage? What happens to the 47 million or so who lack coverage over the next four years? And what about the millions more likely to lose their coverage due to a layoff or preexisting condition? And didn't President Obama insist health care reform was urgent?
I guess the lesson here is never underestimate the ability of Congress NOT to take action–even when they appear to be taking action! Passing a health care reform bill at last won't mean health care reform is coming anytime soon.
Of course, the timing would also be convenient for President Obama, since the most controversial portions of his plan would not take effect until after the 2012 election, which means his biggest proposals would remain academic during his reelection campaign. If the reforms go haywire in 2013 and beyond–failing to contain soaring costs or leaving too many U.S. citizens uninsured–he'd be a lame duck anyway, and immune from political consequences.
I'm not saying that is how President Obama planned this. In fact, I don't recall any discussion by anyone about when these controversial reforms would actually take effect! That is truly amazing, is it not?
Well, now that we know the public plan, the mandates and the restrictions on insurers won't be imposed for at least four years (if they survive at all during the negotiations with Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats), perhaps we can have a more intelligent discussion about how this might all play out.
For one, there is no need to fear that employer mandates will undermine recovery from this recession, since the current economic downturn is likely to be ancient history by 2013. By then, the economy is likely to be booming once more!
For another, having four years to work out the kinks in the Obama plan should give everyone plenty of time to legislate whatever tweaks might be necessary as we approach the launch date.
What do you folks make of all this???
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