NU Online News Service, June 2, 3:53 p.m. EDT
Hurricane forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach predict an Atlantic tropical cyclone season of slightly below average frequency, and one consultant said it is in line with reinsurers' expectations.
The researchers out of Colorado State University said they anticipate 11 named storms this season, five of which are expected to become hurricanes. Of the five hurricanes, two are expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, which would rank them as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The prediction is a reduction from their April forecast of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major storms, and is based on what they see as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and the effects of a weak El Nino climate system.
In a statement, Mr. Klotzbach said there is a 48 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall this season, compared to the last-century average of 52 percent.
The team went on to say there is a 28 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including Florida. They said the chances are the same for a major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.
The long-term average for a major hurricane striking the East Coast is 31 percent, and 30 percent for the Gulf Coast.
The prediction is in keeping with reinsurers' expectations of what this year's season will be like when they made their reinsurance renewals this year, said John DeMartini, executive vice president and catastrophe management practice leader with Towers Perrin's Reinsurance. He said these forecasts were a piece, but not a major piece, of the underwriting and served to "reinforce" their expectations.
Zachary Schmiesing, catastrophe risk management consultant with Towers Perrin's Reinsurance business, said the Gray forecast falls in line with most other hurricane forecasts that call for a normal to weak season. He noted that the forecasts have been off in the past but are getting better with each passing year.
Despite the downgrade in hurricane activity, the Colorado State University team advised residents they should not be lax in their hurricane season preparations; a similar warning was issued by Florida's Citizens Property Insurance Corp.
The insurer said it has secured pre-event financing to ensure claims are paid in a timely manner, with access to $16 billion based on surplus, reinsurance, pre-event bonding and lines of credit.
Sharon Binnun, chief financial officer for Citizens, said in a statement that the insurer is pleased with the result of a $1.64 billion bond issuance in this "difficult financial market environment." When combined with a $400 million credit line, there is enough liquidity for the 2009 hurricane season, she said.
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