NU Online News Service, April 20, 1:40 p.m. EDT
Newark, Calif.-based catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions said last year's severe weather season can be expected to occur every four-to-five years.
Despite what RMS described as an unusual period without a severe storm season, 2008 was marked as the costliest and deadliest in a decade.
As the May peak tornado season approaches, RMS released a special report analyzing the impact of the 2008 severe convective storm season in the United States.
Last year's season, which included nearly 1,700 tornadoes, was the costliest in the last decade, with over $10.5 billion in insured losses, and the second most active on record. RMS said its analysis reveals that a season similar to 2008 could occur once every four-to-five years on average.
Storms in the severe category include tornadoes, hail, straight-line winds, lightning strikes and flash flooding. Hail storms account for more than 60 percent of the average annual loss compared to 25 percent for tornadoes and 15 percent for straight-line winds, primarily because hail storms cover a larger area and occur more frequently and in coordination with tornadoes, RMS noted.
Almost half of the total insured loss last year was caused by the five largest events, the modeler said.
"The degree of early season activity caught many off guard, reeking extreme havoc, amplifying losses and exhausting many aggregate insurance covers," said Matthew Nielsen, product manager at RMS in a statement.
He commented that, "While many insurers were surprised, our analysis shows this level of loss could be expected as frequently as once every four to five years on average. This means there's potential for far more extreme loss seasons, and insurers should quantify and manage their exposures to this peril as they would hurricanes and earthquakes to help avoid future unpleasant surprises."
Last year, RMS launched the new RMS U.S and Canada Severe Convective Storm models covering broad geographical areas including the most active regions of severe convective storms globally, with the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the U.S. and the Prairie Provinces and Ontario in Canada at greatest risk.
The firm said its models incorporate numerical simulation output together with weather observation data, such as radar interpretation, damage surveys and industry claims information.
RMS's U.S. Severe Convective Storm Report is online at //www.rms.com/Publications/2008_US_Severe_Convective_Storm.pdf.
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