The Texas and Louisiana coastline along the Gulf of Mexico will face the most risk of tropical cyclones coming ashore in the United States this year, according to a new forecast.
The prediction came from Guy Carpenter reinsurance brokerage in collaboration with WSI Corp. weather solutions firm.
Guy Carpenter said the report providing pre-season hurricane landfall forecast rates for four different U.S. coastal regions is its first ForeCat update of 2009.
The firm said it puts a rate of 0.65 for hurricane activity in the Gulf--a figure representing the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in that region for the forthcoming 2009 hurricane season (compared to the 1951-2007 average landfall rate of 0.66).
For the Southeast region running from the Florida border to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, the firm said there is a forecast 0.50 mean rate of landfall (higher than the long-term average of 0.41).
The entire Florida coastline has a mean landfall rate of 0.36 and the Northeast coast from Cape Hatteras to Maine has a rate of 0.30.
Guy Carpenter's report can be viewed online at http://www.guycarp.com/portalapp/publicsite/catdocument.pdf?instratreportid=1786.
Last month WSI's Atlantic hurricane forecast predicted 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes will develop in 2009.
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