Great New England Hurricane Redux Could Cause $55 B Loss

A catastrophe modeling firm said today that if the killer hurricane that smashed through Long Island, New York and New England 70 years ago were to reoccur today it could inflict a private and federally insured loss of up to $55 billion.

And the analysis by Risk Management Solutions of Newark, Calif. said in the future if a storm with the power of the September 1938, Great New England Hurricane hit near New Jersey in Delaware Bay and turned more northwesterly it could cause a $115 billion loss.

The 1938 event plowed through the northeast U.S. hitting Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, with high winds, storm surge and inland flooding causing more than 700 fatalities.

The study came up with a loss estimate of $40 billion to $55 billion based on losses from wind, storm surge and flooding and included losses to both the private insurance market and policies covered under the National Flood Insurance Program.

RMS said a 1938 rerun would be another major catastrophe for the affected region, resulting in a large proportion of roads blocked by fallen trees, as well as extensive damage to power lines, telephone lines and cell phone transmission towers.

Power would probably be out for 9 million customers with less than one million without power on day 5, the company estimated.

It said property damage along Long Island's southern coastline and in particular on Fire Island, the barrier island that adjoins it, would be extensive.

Thousands of tons of debris would be generated and coastlines would erode, said RMS. It found that property along Narragansett Bay in Rhode Island, with the exception of downtown Providence, and along Buzzards Bay in Massachusetts would be impacted by the highest levels of coastal storm surges.

The study also found that while thousands of people would be displaced, significant destruction would be limited to certain towns along the coast and many individuals would have insurance and be able to find alternative temporary accommodation, so the scale of dislocation experienced in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 would not occur.

"The 1938 Great New England Hurricane: Looking to the Past to Understand Today's Risk" can be downloaded free at http://www.rms.com/Publications/1938_Great_New_England_Hurricane.pdf.