2009 Expected To Be Another Busy Hurricane Season

The 2009 hurricane season is expected to be another busy period with a somewhat above-average activity predicted by experts at Colorado State University.

Hurricane experts William Gray and Philip Klotzbach leaders of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University released their early extended range forecast for 2009 calling for a heightened number of storms.

The team predicts that there is a 63 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will strike the United States coastline in 2009.

The team said it anticipates 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. They predict seven of the 14 storms will become hurricanes. Of that seven, three are expected to become intense or major hurricanes, category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

“We're forecasting an above-average season based on our early assessment of factors that influence an active hurricane season including warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the likely absence of [warm Pacific Ocean] El Nino conditions,” said Mr. Klotzbach the lead author of the forecasts in a statement. He cautioned that there is a significant uncertainty in the early prediction.

The experts say that their statistical model has been used since 1950 and has correctly forecast above-average or below-average seasons in 45 out of the past 58 years.

The model predicted an above-average season in 2008, which saw a total of 16 named storms.

Mr. Gray said the active cycle is expected to last another decade or two, and then enter a quieter hurricane period in the Atlantic.

The probability of a major hurricane striking the Florida peninsula stands at 39 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 38 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).

Days before this year's Nov. 30 hurricane season end, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Center said the 2008 season ranks “as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.”

Of the 16 named storms, eight were hurricanes at Category 3 or higher. An average has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, NOAA said. A record three major storms struck Cuba.

This season is tied with 1944 as the fourth most active.